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Part 2: COVID19 Who Gets Sick? How Contagious Is It? What The Heck is R0? And More

LINGO:

R Naught (R0) – R0 is a reproduction number.  It tells how many people one sick person will infect.  For example Measles has an R0 of 12-18 it is airborne.  Smallpox has an R0 between 5-7 it is airborne droplet.

R0 can change depending on things like: How many people are packed into a space, like a subway car or a cruise ship is going to have a higher R0 than say a grocery store on a Monday.

The American CDC has said that the R0 of COVID19 is between 2.2 and 2.7.  The Chinese CDC said the R0 was higher more like 3-5. COVID19 is spread by airborne droplets.

UPDATE: The CDC has raised the R0 to 5.7

FOMITES:  Objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as clothes, utensils, and furniture.

COVID19 can live on fomites for 9 (NINE) days.


THE NUMBERS:

China has been putting out numbers of infections/recoveries/deaths for days.  These numbers are NOT reliable as they have “changed the way they are counting cases” about 5 different times now, and that has resulted in adding and subtracting infections and deaths sometimes a few times in the same day! Then they fire the people that gave out the numbers to begin with.

Here is what we know from data from 40,000 cases:

80% of patients have MILD symptoms

20% of patients have SEVERE symptoms requiring a ventilator to survive

2% die, this is MUCH more deadly than Influenza.  Much higher chance of death for people who have a preexisting condition like: Diabetes, Asthma, Cancer, and Heart Disease.  Risk of fatality also rises with each decade of age. The GOOD news here is that there are few cases in children.

2.8%  Male fatalities vs 1.7% for women


THE TEST KITS:

The test kits that have been assembled by the CDC have been totally unreliable.  Many people have tested multiple times negative, then have tested positive.  People also haven’t been trained properly on the test kits, so it could be user error helping this along. There are also other reports that the kits are just flawed.  Also, there aren’t enough test kits to go around.  This is why only some of the cruise ship people have been tested.


TREATMENT:

They have had some success in treating patients with a cocktail of anti viral drugs usually used for AIDS, and Malaria.  They are also starting plasma from recovered patients treatment in China.  A vaccine will take at minimum a year, and then has to be mass produced.


That’s all I have for you today.  Tomorrow’s installment will cover:  The cases around the world, and what is being done about them, and the inevitable problems with the supply chain that will have long lasting economic effects across the world.    -JAP-

TAKE ME BACK TO PART 1